Northwest Florida Real Estate Market Overview | January 2026
January 2026 data shows continued adjustment across Northwest Florida real estate markets, with rising inventory, slower absorption, and increasingly market-specific pricing behavior. While these markets are often grouped together geographically, the data shows they are responding very differently depending on property type, price point, and buyer motivation.
This market report examines four key segments: the 30A corridor (ZIP code 32461) single-family homes, Panama City Beach condominiums, Destin condominiums, and Bay County single-family homes.
30A Corridor | ZIP Code 32461 | Single-Family Homes
- Average sales price: $2.92M (+13%)
- Median list price: $2.0M (-4%)
- Months supply of inventory: 12.9 months (+47%)
- Sales volume: -47%
The 30A single-family market continues to show extreme price dispersion. January included a notable $15 million sale in Rosemary Beach, representing the upper end of the luxury market.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, new construction homes around 2,000 square feet in WaterSound Origins were trading near $755,000. This wide range highlights why ZIP-level averages alone do not tell the full story in this market.
Pricing strength here is being driven by select high-end closings rather than broad-based acceleration, and buyer behavior varies significantly by neighborhood and use case.
Panama City Beach, Florida | Condominium Market
- Average sales price: $430,000 (-2%)
- Median list price: $429,000
- Months supply of inventory: 16.48 months (+8%)
- Sales volume: -18%
Panama City Beach condominiums continue to experience elevated inventory and selective buyer demand. A notable $1,585,000 sale at St. Andrews Park Place, a 20-unit non–short-term rental building with historically low turnover, influenced monthly averages.
The next highest sales stepped down to $910,000, $850,000, and $720,000 before pricing normalized into the $600,000 range. This context is critical when interpreting averages in a market dominated by short-term rental properties.
Destin, Florida | Condominium Market
- Average sales price: $624,000 (-17%)
- Sales-to-list price ratio: 93.3%
- Months supply of inventory: 23.29 months (+76%)
- Sales volume: -54%
Destin condominium pricing normalized in January following an outlier-driven December that included a $5.1 million sale. While January still saw a few transactions around $1.5 million, the majority of sales aligned with more typical pricing patterns.
This remains a buyer-controlled environment where pricing realism and negotiation strategy are increasingly important.
Bay County, Florida | Single-Family Homes
- Average sales price: $412,000 (-12%)
- Median list price: $430,000
- Months supply of inventory: 8.21 months (+50%)
- Sales volume: -42%
Bay County provides a broader regional baseline with significant price dispersion. January included 15 detached single-family sales under $200,000, many representing full renovation opportunities, with the lowest sale closing at $40,000.
At the upper end, the highest detached home sale reached $2.35 million, with additional transactions just over $1.1 million before pricing normalized into the $900,000 range and below.
Investor Reality Check | Panama City Beach Condominiums
For buyers evaluating Panama City Beach condos strictly as investments, most opportunities are currently not structured for strong cash flow.
As an example, a $360,000 condominium generating approximately $56,000 in gross annual rental revenue may still produce only a 4–6% cash-on-cash return, depending on down payment structure.
High fixed costs — including HOA dues, insurance, utilities, taxes, and maintenance — limit upside. As a result, purely numbers-driven investors are finding fewer deals that pencil out.
Where the market makes more sense today is for buyers who value personal use, while renting to offset ownership costs. This shift reflects broader changes since the August 2022 market peak, including higher interest rates, softer nightly rental performance, and rising ownership expenses.
Key Takeaway
The Northwest Florida real estate market continues its post-2022 reset. Inventory is rising, buyer leverage has improved, and strategy now matters more than optimism.
Understanding where activity is clustering — and why averages can mislead — is essential for making informed decisions in today’s market.
About the Author
Sean Paul Casilli and Alice de La Penha are Co-Founders of The Real Experts Group at Coldwell Banker Realty, based in Panama City Beach, Florida. Their work focuses on condominium market coverage, building walkthroughs, and data-driven real estate analysis across Northwest Florida.
For additional market resources and condo insights, visit https://realexperts.pro.
